Marques surges past Carl in Alabama congressional race as former congressman’s comeback bid stalls — 45% still undecided

State Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) opened a six-point lead over former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) in the Alabama congressional race for the First District, and Carl’s comeback bid shows no signs of catching up.

The PI Polling survey, conducted May 2 through May 4 for Alabama Daily News, puts Marques at 27% and Carl at 21% among likely Republican primary voters. Joshua McKee trailed at 4%.

The trend line tells the sharper story. Marques climbed steadily across three consecutive PI Polling surveys, rising from 19% in early April to 22% later that month to 27% now. Carl posted 23%, 20%, and 21% across the same stretch. Marques is building. Carl is treading water.

Forty-five percent of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, meaning the Alabama congressional race will be decided by which campaign breaks through in the final two weeks.

Carl pulls 46% in Mobile County, home turf for the former county commissioner and congressman.

That advantage vanishes everywhere else. Marques leads in Baldwin County, holds a 32-to-6 edge in the Dothan media market, and dominates the district’s rural and exurban counties at 38% to Carl’s 5%.

The Alabama congressional race outside Mobile belongs to Marques.

Marques also leads Carl across every ideological group the survey tracked: very conservative voters at 29% to 21%, somewhat conservative voters at 26% to 21%, and moderates at 26% to 19%.

His favorability climbed from 24% in early April to 32% now, with just 9% unfavorable. Fifty-nine percent of voters still have no opinion of him, leaving significant room to grow as the primary closes.

Alabama requires a majority to win a party primary outright. If no candidate clears 50% on May 19, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on June 16. With nearly half the electorate still uncommitted, a runoff remains a very real possibility.

The survey was conducted May 2 through May 4, 2026 by PI Polling for Alabama Daily News. It included 531 likely Republican primary election voters and was weighted to match likely 2026 turnout demographics. The margin of error is ±4.3% at a 95% level of confidence.

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U.S. Puts Peace Proposal on the Table as Iran-War Diplomacy Intensifies

Iran says it is reviewing an American peace proposal — as the closest thing to a diplomatic breakthrough in this conflict plays out through back channels, with Pakistan serving as the go-between for Washington and Tehran.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said his government has not yet sent its formal response, but that once it finalizes its position, it will relay its views to Pakistani negotiators. President Trump, speaking at a White House event Wednesday, said the Iranians — quote — "want to make a deal" — and made clear the U.S. will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, with or without an agreement.

The diplomatic push is happening alongside continued military pressure. A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker Wednesday after it ignored repeated warnings not to cross an American blockade on Iranian ports. The jet fired 20-millimeter cannon rounds into the ship's rudder, stopping it short of an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. military said the vessel is no longer headed to Iran.

Trump has paused — temporarily, he says — the American effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping lane Iran has effectively closed since the war began in late February. He said the pause came at the request of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to give diplomacy a chance. But he left little room for ambiguity on what happens if talks fail — warning in a social media post that if Iran doesn't agree to terms, quote — "the bombing starts, and it will be at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."

The mixed signals from Washington have created confusion about where things actually stand. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just Tuesday that the active phase of the war was over. Hours later, Trump contradicted that framing on social media. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates says it is still under fire from Iranian missiles and drones.

France is also trying to insert itself into the solution. President Macron is pushing to separate the Strait of Hormuz question from the broader nuclear and missile negotiations — hoping a multinational escort force, which France is assembling alongside Britain and other European nations, could begin moving commercial ships through the strait relatively quickly. France's aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle has already deployed to the Red Sea in preparation. Iran, however, is unlikely to embrace that idea — it would surrender much of Tehran's remaining leverage.

And the violence isn't limited to the Gulf. Israel carried out an airstrike Wednesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut — the first such strike in the Lebanese capital since a White House-brokered ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect last month. Israel says it targeted the commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan fighting force. Hezbollah has not commented.